The Purdue Boilermakers will try to end a long streak of futility when they host the Penn State Nittany Lions on Thursday night in a Big Ten divisional matchup. Purdue won five of its last six games last season, including two wins against the top five teams, and comes in with high expectations. The Nittany Lions went 7-6 and are 11-11 the past two seasons, but have beaten the Boilermakers in nine straight since 2004. Both teams have sixth-year seniors at quarterback, with Aidan O’Connell leading the list. The Boilermakers and Sean Clifford are at the helm of PSU. The Nittany Lions won their most recent matchup 35-7 at State College in 2019, and in their last trip to West Lafayette, they defeated the Boilermakers 62-24.
Kickoff from Ross-Ade Stadium is scheduled for 8 pm ET. Caesars Sportsbook lists Penn State as a 3.5-point favorite in its latest Penn State vs. Purdue, while the over/under of total points scored is set at 52. Before making any Purdue vs. Penn State or Week 1 college football predictions, you need to see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.
The SportsLine projection model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of nearly $3,600 for $100 players on their top-rated college football picks against the spread. He enters Week 1 of the 2022 college football season riding a 45-32 streak in all of the top-rated college football money line and spread picks going back to 2021. Anyone who has followed him has seen large profits.
Now, the model has set her sights on Penn State vs. Purdue and simply pinned their CFB picks and predictions. You can head over to SportsLine now to check out the model picks. Here are various college football odds and betting lines for Purdue vs. PennState:
- Diffusion Penn State vs. Purdue: Nittany Lions -3.5
- PennState vs. Purdue over/under: 52 points
- Penn State vs. Money Line Purdue: Nittany Lions -170, Boilermakers +143
- PSU: Penn State is 9-2 against the spread in its last 11 games in September.
- PUR: Purdue is 5-1 ATS in its last five games, with three wins as an underdog.
- Penn State vs. Picks Purdue: Check out the picks on SportsLine
featured game | Purdue Boilermakers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Why Penn State can cover
Penn State has scored at least 34 points in four straight games, and its 62 in 2016 is the most points scored by a visitor in Ross-Ade Stadium’s 98-year history. Clifford and the offense should be able to match anything the Purdue unit can do, as he threw for more than 3,000 yards with 21 TDs and just eight interceptions last season. Parker Washington, who caught 64 passes for 820 yards, and Western Kentucky transfer Mitchell Tinsley should be huge weapons. Tinsley had 87 catches for the Hilltoppers last season, with his 1,402 yards ranking eighth in the nation.
The road team is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings, and the Nittany Lions will be itching for a fast start. They went 5-0 last season but lost six of their last eight, and they have a defense that should stop just about anyone. PSU will be pleased to have both 329-pound running back PJ Mustipher and pass rusher Adisa Isaac back from injury up front. The defense gave up just 17.3 points per game and limited opponents to fewer than 200 passing yards last year.
Why Purdue can cover
Purdue will be on a big stage at their home stadium and they know a win could propel them into a historic season. Purdue is 20-8 ATS as an underdog under coach Jeff Brohm. The Boilermakers have won five of their last six in 2021, covering the spread in each win. The only setback was a 28-point loss to Ohio State. The Boilermakers beat then-No. 2 Iowa and fifth-ranked Michigan State last season, and O’Connell threw for 536 yards against the Spartans. He has averaged 432 yards and completed 72 percent of his passes in the last five games.
O’Connell’s childhood friend Charlie Jones could make a big impact for Purdue after transferring from Iowa. He was a standout returner, averaging 25.4 yards on 25 kickoff returns, and catching 21 passes. Last season. Broc Thompson, who burst for 217 yards in the Music City Bowl win against Tennessee, should be ready after surgery on both knees. Tight end Payne Durham remains a reliable target for O’Connell after scoring six touchdowns and catching 45 passes in 2021. Purdue averaged 29.1 points last season while Penn State scored 23.9 per game.
How to make selections from Purdue vs. Penn State
SportsLine’s model skews below total points, projecting teams to combine for 51 points. The model also says that one side of the differential affects almost 60% of the simulations. You can only see the model choice on SportsLine.
So who wins Penn State against Purdue? And which side of the spread hits in almost 60% of the simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed your college football picks, and find out.