Penn State vs. Odds Purdue Spread: 2022 College Football Picks, Model Week 1 Predictions on a 45-32 run

The Purdue Boilermakers appear to have their best chance in years to beat the Penn State Nittany Lions as they prepare to host a high-profile Big Ten college football game on Thursday. The Boilermakers won five of their last six games last season behind quarterback Aidan O’Connell and a powerhouse passing game. They beat two top-five teams during the season, with their only loss during that six-game stretch coming to Ohio State. But Purdue has lost nine straight to the Nittany Lions and will take advantage of the bright lights and the support of its fans to try to break the decline. Penn State has its own veteran sign, with Sean Clifford closing in on numerous school records, but is a lackluster 11-11 the past two seasons.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. at 52.5. Before making any Purdue vs. Penn State or Week 1 college football predictions, you need to see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine projection model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of nearly $3,600 for $100 players on their top-rated college football picks against the spread. He enters Week 1 of the 2022 college football season riding a 45-32 streak in all of the top-rated college football money line and spread picks going back to 2021. Anyone who has followed him has seen large profits.

Now, the model has set her sights on Penn State vs. Purdue and simply pinned their CFB picks and predictions. You can head over to SportsLine now to check out the model picks. Here are various college football odds and betting lines for Purdue vs. PennState:

  • Diffusion Penn State vs. Purdue: Nittany Lions -3.5
  • PennState vs. Purdue plus/minus: 52.5 points
  • Penn State vs. Money Line Purdue: Nittany Lions -170, Boilermakers +143
  • PSU: Penn State is 9-2 against the spread in its last 11 games in September.
  • PUR: Purdue is 5-1 ATS in its last five games, with three wins as an underdog.
  • Penn State vs. Picks Purdue: Check out the picks on SportsLine

Why Penn State can cover

Unless Kyle Orton shows up under center for Purdue, Penn State has an excellent opportunity. He quarterbacked in 2003 and 2004 for the Boilermakers’ only two wins against PSU since 1951. The Nittany Lions won the other 15 after losing the opening game in 1951 and a tie in ’52. Clifford needs 2,031 yards to break Penn State’s all-time record for passing yards. He threw for 3,107 and 21 TDs last season, with eight interceptions. PSU has scored at least 34 points in four straight games, including 62 in its last visit to Ross-Ade Stadium in 2016.

The receiving corps lost Jahan Dotson to the NFL, but Parker Washington should step in after catching 64 passes for 820 yards. Transfer Mitchell Tinsley was eighth in the nation with 1,402 yards on 87 receptions for Western Kentucky last season. PSU averaged just 107.8 rushing yards per game last season, but Purdue was by far the worst of the Big Ten at 84.2, and Nittany Lions starter Keyvone Lee averaged 4.9 yards per carry. The Nittany Lions defense allowed fewer than 200 passing yards per game and had 14 interceptions last season, both third-best in the conference.

Why Purdue can cover

O’Connell has given Purdue fans high expectations, and they will revel in the atmosphere Thursday night. O’Connell completed 71.6% of his passes last season, throwing for 3,712 yards and 28 TDs in nine games. Star wide receiver David Bell left for the NFL, but Charlie Jones was traded from Iowa, and tight end Payne Durham remains a reliable option. Jones grew up with O’Connell and came after being named Big Ten Return Specialist of the Year in 2021. Broc Thompson should join Jones to play a major role on Purdue’s receiving corps.

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Thompson had 217 yards and two TDs in the Music City Bowl win against Tennessee, and Durham had 45 receptions and six TDs in 2021. Purdue averaged 29.1 points last season despite not being able to run the ball, so running back King Doerue (533 yards) and Indiana transfer Sampson James will have to step up. The Boilermakers had the second-best passing offense in the Big Ten. On defense, winger Kydran Jenkins had five sacks in 2021 and will go after Clifford, who has been sacked 30 times. Purdue is 20-8 ATS as an underdog under coach Jeff Brohm.

How to make selections from Purdue vs. Penn State

SportsLine’s model skews below total points, projecting teams to combine for 51 points. The model also says that one side of the differential affects almost 60% of the simulations. You can only see the model choice on SportsLine.

So who wins Penn State against Purdue? And which side of the spread hits in almost 60% of the simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed your college football picks, and find out.

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