Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich – Bayern Munich win -1
Dortmund vs Bayern Munich – Both teams to score
Brighton vs Tottenham – Brighton to win
Brighton vs Tottenham – Home Team Total Cards Over 1.5 & Away Team Total Cards Over 1.5
A Bookmaker using these selections pays approximately 1/29 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BET CODE.
Saturday 5.30pm: Brighton vs Tottenham – TV: Sky Sports Main Event
Saturday 17:30: Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich – TV: Sky Sports Football
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According to Gary Lineker, soccer is a simple game; Twenty-two men chase a ball for 90 minutes and in the end the Germans win.
When it comes to Der Klassiker, in the end, Bayern Munich wins. They have won their last seven Bundesliga games against Borussia Dortmund, and eight in all competitions if we include the Super Cup. They will have had an extra day to prepare for this too, with their midweek game at home against Viktoria Plzen (a lovely lady) far less strenuous than the trip from Dortmund to Seville.
Often when these teams meet, the Munich men score first and never lose control. Other times, Dortmund are two goals ahead at the start (as happened in March 2021) but Bayern win in the end.
They tend to do so with a lot of goals too, having scored at least three times in each of the last six games. Assuming they do it again – and the average 2.5 expected goals per game suggests they can – then Bayern can overcome the deficit and win by at least two goals.
Julian Nagelsmann’s side are likely to need to score three again to finish with a margin of at least two in their favour, as they rarely keep a clean sheet against Dortmund. Both teams have scored in each of the last six meetings.
While they haven’t seen that happen too often in their own games this season, that’s because these clubs win clean sheets fairly regularly. Dortmund and Bayern have only failed once each in the 2022/23 Bundesliga, and in the latter’s case, they somehow squandered 2.2 expected goals when it happened. There should be quite a few chances at either end of Signal Iduna Park on Saturday, in which both teams will score.
Brighton’s game with Tottenham may not seem as big a clash between the big two in Germany, but with these teams in the top four of the Premier League at the start of the weekend, it’s a good litmus test for their ambitions. In their first game under new manager Roberto De Zerbi, the Seagulls were impressive as they picked up a point at Liverpool last weekend (and probably should have won). That will give them confidence heading into this game at the Amex, where they have won two and drawn one of their three matches this season.
Underlying data for 2022/23 suggests they should be low-priced favorites for this game too. Tottenham’s away form has been shaky of late, with losses to Sporting and Arsenal between draws at West Ham and Eintracht Frankfurt.
Although an away win here would not be a surprise, the price of a Brighton win is too hefty to ignore.
These two clubs were in the top six of the division in total cards per game last season, in part because they each conceded five in their two matchups.
Tottenham took their record and ran with it in 2022/23, helped by Emerson Royal’s stupid red card at the Emirates last weekend.
No Premier League team has seen more bookings against their opponents this season, as Spurs’ games averaged 4.6 yellow cards each.
Referee Tony Harrington is inexperienced at Premier League level and hasn’t had too many cards so far. However, only once in 2022/23 has a team playing Tottenham received fewer than two yellow cards, so Brighton should receive more than 1.5 cards. Spurs should too, which our Bet Maker completes.
Saturday Bet Maker
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich – Bayern Munich win -1
Dortmund vs Bayern Munich – Both teams to score
Brighton vs Tottenham – Brighton to win
Brighton vs Tottenham – Home Team Total Cards Over 1.5 & Away Team Total Cards Over 1.5
All prices are up-to-date with our stylish widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at the time of publication, but are subject to change.
A Bookmaker using these selections pays approximately 1/29 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BET CODE.
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