NFL Odds Week 5: How to Bet Dolphins-Jets, Pick

The Miami Dolphins (3-1) will be without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) when they play the New York Jets (2-2) in a key AFC East Division game on Sunday.

Veteran Teddy Bridgewater will start for Miami.

The Dolphins lead the all-time series against the Jets 57-55-1. Miami has controlled the NFL rivalry, which began in 1966, by winning the last four games and eight of the last nine.

Here you will find everything you need from a betting perspective on the Dolphins-Jets game, from point spread, money line, total over/under and expert selection (odds via FOX Bet):

RELATED: Tagovailoa ruled out against Jets

dolphins @ Jets (1 p.m. ET, Sunday, CBS)

Point difference: Dolphins -3.5 (Dolphins are 3.5+ points favorite to win, otherwise Jets cover)
money line: Dolphins -167 favorites to win (bet $10 to win a total of $15.99); Jets +130 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $23 total)
Total score over/under: 44.5 points scored by both teams combined

The Dolphins are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last five games.

The Dolphins have reached the Under in the Over/Under (O/U) in 10 of their last 14 games.

The Dolphins are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against the Jets.

The Jets have hit the Over at O/U 12 times in their last 18 games.

The Jets are 1-7 in a straight line (SU) in their last eight home games.

The Jets have hit the Under in the O/U in their last five home games against the Dolphins.

Information through a gambling expert sharp warren:

It will be a welcome relief for the Jets to be done with the AFC North. The Jets played their first four games against the brutal AFC North, and their last two games were against the Bengalis Y steelmakersboth top-10 defenses.

Now, the Jets face the fifth worst defense in the NFL, the Dolphins.

Miami is allowing the second-most yards per passing play this year.

And they’ve been the worst pass defense in the NFL against game action.

When quarterbacks use game action, they post +0.65 EPA/att, which is No. 1 highest in the NFL and well above the NFL average of +0.12 EPA/att.

When teams aren’t using game action against the Dolphins, their pass attempts average +0.05 EPA/att.

So he’s made a huge difference for quarterbacks when they face the Dolphins.

In his game against the Steelers, Wilson had massive splits with and without game action on the first few down passes:

With game action:

+0.09 EPA/att, 50% success rate, 8.0 YPA

No game action:

-0.23 EPA/att, 19% success rate, 5.1 YPA

If the Jets have improved by wilson the use of gaming action, and this is not the case with a small sample size, will be massive for them this season.

That’s because Wilson was one of the NFL’s worst passing game-action quarterbacks last season.

Check out their divisions in 2021:

With game action:

-0.31 EPA/att, 32% success, 5.8 YPA

No game action:

-0.10 EPA/att, 37% success rate, 6.2 YPA

It could end up working very well for Wilson to use game action if the lane can hold out long enough in protection.

For the Dolphins, I can’t imagine a team that needed 10 days off from a game more than the Dolphins.

of the match against Bills in brutal heat from the short trade on the road and losing their starting QB to a severe concussion, followed by all the media blitz and criticism, it’s been a rough patch. That’s why it was a perfect time to have extra days away from the facility to rest and prepare for this game.

Say what you want about teddy bridgewater performance after being inserted for you last Thursday, but I think it will look MUCH better here against the Jets’ pass defense.

The amazing thing about Tua and this Dolphins offense is that they rank No. 2 in total efficiency, including No. 2 in passing efficiency, despite playing the No. 1 toughest pass defense schedule.

They’ve played just three top-10 pass defenses, with the No. 14 thrown in for good measure.

Now, they can finally take on the Jets’ fourth-worst pass defense. This will be the worst pass defense the Dolphins will face all season.

I hope Teddy Bridgewater looks good in this situation, given the players around him, his training and the amount of time he’s had to prepare. He won’t outplay Tua, but against this defense, he should be satisfying.

Keep in mind that last year when Vic Fangio’s Broncos quarterback Teddy Bridgewater faced this same Jets defense and went 19-for-25 for 235 yards (9.4 YPA), +0.37 EPA/att and 48% success while scoring 26 points. . That was a much less creative, talented and well-coached offense than the one he has now with the Dolphins.

I would look at the Over in this game.

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