• Bet on Patrick Mahomes to win MVP (+450): The last five MVPs, including Mahomes, have led the NFL in expected aggregate points (EPA). He currently ranks second behind Bills QB Josh Allen – after the losing star, wide receiver Tyreek Hill.
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Futures bet: Kansas Chiefs Chiefs to win division title (-185)
• The Chiefs are easily the best team in the AFC West: Right now, the Chiefs rank first in the NFL in EPA per play generated on offense and 13th in EPA allowed on defense. The Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers are average on offense and slightly below average on defense. The Denver Broncos are below average on offense and good on defense. The Chiefs being several notches ahead of the rest of their division is a huge advantage for them.
• PFF Power Ranking Tool he has the Chiefs shooting 68% to win the division. Odds of -175 imply a 63% chance, so there is a 5% edge to betting on the Chiefs.
MVP Bet: Patrick Mahomes to win MVP (+450)
• Mahomes is second in the league in EPA: The last five NFL MVPs have led the league in expected total points added (EPA). Currently, Patrick Mahomes is second, behind only Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen. Mahomes has never finished outside the top three in his career in total EPA, so we can expect him to repeat himself this season, and passing Allen would put him in the driver’s seat to win the award.
• The narrative is there.: Last season, the narrative around Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense was how they struggled against two-tier structures. This offseason, it was about whether the Chiefs would be able to produce without wide receiver Tyreek Hill. The story of resiliency so far is there for Mahomes to take home the MVP.
CFB WEEK 6 Bet: Missouri +11.5 at Florida (-115)
• PFF predictive models give a value of +1.8% for Missouri +11.5 against Florida on Saturday. Missouri is 3-2 ATS this year after a close loss to Georgia last week.
CFB WEEK 6 Bet: Kansas vs. Money Line TCU (+200)
• PFF predictive models give a value of +1.5% for Kansas Money Line at +200, estimating a 33.7% chance of winning for Kansas, while +200 implies a 31.3% chance.