• Packers QB Aaron Rodgers Bet on 227.5 Passing Yards (-125): Rodgers’ 76.2 approval rating ranks seventh among quarterbacks entering Week 5, and PFF’s predictive models give this bet a 4.1% edge.
• new users of Illinois, Louisiana either Kansas who wagers $10 or more at BetMGM will receive $200 free bets — regardless of the outcome of your bet. Click here to register!
• As a bonus, you will also receive a free subscription to PFF+which includes fantasy football tools, ratings and stats, and NFL draft prospect analysis.
Estimated reading time: 4 min
CFB Week 6 Bet: Illinois Money Line (-165) Vs. Iowa and over 36.5 (-110)
• The Iowa Hawkeyes and Illinois Fighting Illini are set for a defensive battle on Saturday: The visiting Hawkeyes rank second in the nation in team defense rating (93.3), while the Illini are currently fifth (92.2).
• One matchup I’m looking at is the Iowa offensive line versus the Illinois defensive line. Iowa has a pass blocking rating of 34.9, 130th out of 131 PFF-rated varsity teams. He has allowed 51 QB pressures and nine sacks so far.
• Illinois’ defensive front posted a 91.7 pass rush rating (a top-25 mark in the country) and posted 17 sacks (12th). Going 3-0 at home this season, Illinois -180 is a value bet despite the high odds.
• PFF predictive model He shows value by backing the over 36.5, giving the bet a 3.8% edge.
Teaser bet: Minnesota Vikings -1 (from -7) vs. Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers -2.5 (from -8.5) at New York Giants
Packers vs. Giants
• As much as I love what Brian Daboll is doing with the Giants, they may be the most overrated 3-1 team in the NFL. The Giants have the second-worst team offensive rating (61.0) in the NFL, ahead of only the New York Jets. As an offensive unit, the Giants also rank 24th in hit rate.
• Starting quarterback Daniel Jones and backup quarterback Tyrod Taylor were both injured last week, their status for Week 5 still unknown. Putting Green Bay to bed under a field goal against a room of quarterbacks banged up is a great teaser option.
bears vs vikings
• After escaping London with a win against the Saints, the Vikings return home to take on the Chicago Bears.
• The Bears’ 2-2 record is a bit misleading. They are one of the worst teams in the NFL and can be the worst offensive team in the league. They rank 28th in the entire league in team offense, 32nd in passing and 14th in running; it’s easy to see why they’re the second-worst scoring offense in the league.
Player of the Week 5 Support Bet: Packers QB Aaron Rodgers over 227.5 Passing Yards vs. Giants (-125)
• PFF predictive models shows a 4.1% edge betting Rodgers has 227.5+ passing yards on Sunday against the New York Giants.
• The Giants look good against the pass on paper, having allowed the seventh fewest passing yards in the league. Let’s look at the QBS they’ve faced: Ryan Tannehill, Baker Mayfield, Cooper Rush and Justin Fields. What do they have in common? They all play on teams that rank in the bottom half of the league in hit rate and expected points added (EPA) per game.
• Rodgers has thrown for 232-plus yards in three straight games and has a 76.2 PFF approval rating, seventh-best in the league.
Futures Bet: Bears under 6.5 wins (-130)
• Even with two wins under their belt, the Bears haven’t earned much confidence in the market, nor should they. Chicago franchise hopeful quarterback Justin Fields ranks dead last in passer rating, completion percentage and adjusted completion percentage. Fields also gets almost no help from his receiving corps and the offensive line in pass protection, which isn’t a great combination when he’s supposed to be the center of rebuilding the organization.
Futures bet: Vikings will win the NFC North (+125)
• Before the season began, the Vikings were listed at +265 to win the NFC North. Right now, BetMGM has them listed at +125, closing in on the Packers when they fell from -190 to -130.
• Right now the Vikings are better offensively and are ranked ahead of the Packers in points per game, EPA per play and hit rate.