Formula 1 Italian Grand Prix 2022 Odds and Predictions

Mercedes driver Lewis Hamilton on track in Montreal

June 18, 2022; Montréal, Québec, CAN; Mercedes driver Lewis Hamilton of the United Kingdom exits pit lane during qualifying at Circuit Gilles Villeneuve. Mandatory Credit: David Kirouac-USA TODAY Sports

  • Max Verstappen is the favorite to claim a fifth consecutive win at this weekend’s Italian Grand Prix
  • Charles Leclerc is the second favorite again despite recent shaky results
  • See odds and trends from the Italian Grand Prix ahead of Sunday morning’s race at the Autodromo Nazionale di Monza

Max Verstappen will attempt to extend his current winning streak to five races when he returns to Monza for this weekend’s race of the 2022 Italian Grand Prix. The reigning F1 champion put in another outstanding performance last weekend, fending off a serious threat of Mercedes teammates Lewis Hamilton and George Russell claiming the checkered flag on their homecoming at the Dutch Grand Prix.

Verstappen now enjoys a massive 109-point lead in the F1 drivers’ standings with just seven races remaining on the 2022 calendar.

Here’s a look at all the odds and trends ahead of the 2022 Italian Grand Prix race on Sunday morning at 9:00am ET at the Autodromo Nazionale di Monza.

2022 Italian Grand Prix odds

Driver odds of winning Odds of finishing in the top three Odds of finishing in the top six Odds of finishing in the top ten
max verstappen -265 -450 -750 -800
Charles Leclerc +650 -160 -550 -600
Lewis Hamilton +800 -150 -650 -650
george russell +1100 +115 -600 -650
Sergio Perez +1500 -115 -500 -550
Carlos Sainz jr. +1600 +225 -450 -500
lando norris +15000 +1800 +100 -400
Fernando Alonso +20000 +1800 -120 -400
Esteban Ocon +30000 +3000 +275 -330
Daniel Ricciardo +30000 +6500 +850 +150
Valtteri Bottas +50000 +15000 +2000 +180
Sebastian Vettel +50000 +13000 +1200 +125
pierre gasley +50000 +10000 +1200 +165
spear ride +50000 +13000 +1200 +165
kevin magnussen +50000 +15000 +1200 +185
yukitsunoda +90000 +25000 +2800 +350
alex albon +90000 +13000 +1600 +130
Nicholas Latif +90000 +30000 +10000 +1800
Mike Schumacher +900000 +25000 +2200 +225
Guanyu Zhou +90000 +25000 +2500 +425

Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook as of September 8, 2022.

Not surprisingly, Verstappen is a heavy -265 favorite to claim his first win at Monza in this weekend’s Italian Grand Prix odds. Coming off his second podium finish in 10 races, Charles Leclerc is listed as a distant second favorite at +650, followed by Hamilton at +800.

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Grid penalty waiting for Verstappen?

Max Verstappen has enjoyed the benefit of a mature skill set and the fastest car during the defense of his F1 crown this season. However, the 24-year-old has simply been in a league of his own since Red Bull provided him with power unit upgrades two weeks ago in Belgium. Forced to start from 14th on the grid, Verstappen needed just eight laps to erase that deficit for an easy victory.

Those improvements were also evident last week at Zandvoort. Verstappen seized pole and subsequently flexed his muscles late in the race to fend off a threat from Lewis Hamilton and George Russell on his way to victory by a margin of more than four seconds. Now that he comfortably controls the top of the standings, there are rumors that Verstappen’s car will receive further upgrades this weekend, once again forcing him to start from the back of the pack.

But will it really matter? Considering Red Bull’s current dominant pace, which gives it a clear advantage on the long Monza straights, probably not. That is if the champion can avoid an early exit from this race for the third year in a row.

Recent winners of the Italian Grand Prix

Year Driver margin of victory pole position fastest lap
2021 Daniel Ricciardo – McLaren 1,747 sec Max Verstappen-Red Bull Racing Daniel Ricciardo – McLaren
2020 Pierre Gasly – AlphaTauri 0.415 sec Lewis Hamilton-Mercedes Lewis Hamilton-Mercedes
2019 Charles Leclerc Ferrari 0.835 sec Charles Leclerc Ferrari Lewis Hamilton-Mercedes
2018 Lewis Hamilton-Mercedes 8,705 sec Kimi Raikkonen Ferrari Lewis Hamilton-Mercedes
2017 Lewis Hamilton-Mercedes 4.471 sec Lewis Hamilton-Mercedes Daniel Ricciardo – Red Bull-Renault
2016 Nico Rosberg-Mercedes 15,070 sec Lewis Hamilton-Mercedes Fernando Alonso – McLaren
2015 Lewis Hamilton-Mercedes 25.042 sec Lewis Hamilton-Mercedes Lewis Hamilton-Mercedes
2014 Lewis Hamilton-Mercedes 3.175 sec Lewis Hamilton-Mercedes Lewis Hamilton-Mercedes
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Rubber hits the road for Mercedes

While an ill-timed safety car and public bickering between Hamilton and Mercedes control spoiled what was the Silver Arrows’ best chance of taking their second win of the season last weekend, there’s every reason to appreciate the chances of the German automaker this time. around.

Clearly Mercedes has not been able to keep up with Verstappen and his Red Bull teammate Sergio Perez so far this season. However, the Silver Arrows have managed to gain a significant advantage in tire management, which should serve them well this weekend at Monza, where Hamilton has taken five wins in his race.

Effective tire management allowed Mercedes to adopt a pit stop strategy last week that might have paid off had there not been a need for a safety car late in the race. Once the challenge Mercedes faces to duplicate that strategy in Italy higher temperatures are expected. However, in the event of Verstappen committing a penalty, Mercedes offers impressive value as a bet of +250 to claim their third double podium finish in five races.

The Picks: Max Verstappen fastest qualifier (-200); Mercedes double podium (+250)

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Daniel Coyle

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