I just finished my last Fantasy Football draft of the preseason on Tuesday afternoon, bringing my total to 14 teams I’m managing this season. That’s a pretty typical number for me, and I’d assume most Fantasy analysts, though I’ve also done a few best-ball leagues that don’t require admin and probably 25-30 or more mock drafts since the start of the offseason. .
That’s a lot to keep track of, but every year before Week 1, I try to do exactly that. I have a spreadsheet with each roster I’ve picked, and with a little help from the “CountIf” function, I can figure out exactly which players I’ve drafted the most. And usually there aren’t too many surprises there; usually they tend to be players where I’m higher than the consensus in my rankings, obviously. Those are, for better or worse, “my boys.”
However, there are some surprises in the players that I have not chosen. Here are the top 10 players in my ranking that I won’t have on any of my rosters this season:
If you’ve been reading the Fantasy Football Today Newsletter, you’ll know that I have my concerns about Cook and Harris due to injury, and I’m a little lower on Mixon and Williams than the consensus. But I’m surprised I won’t have Swift, Fournette, Hill, or Conner on any of my lists. I wasn’t avoiding them or particularly down for them, it just never turned out that they ended up on my team.
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The next 10 guys? They were goals, and I achieved them. This is why.
Robert Woods — Times elected: 7
Woods finished in the middle of my squads this season, which makes sense because I’m way higher than the consensus on him. The reason for this is pretty simple: I think he’s the Titans’ clear No. 1 wide receiver, and while that never resulted in enough targets for AJ Brown for our liking, it turned out to be around 130 pace over the past two seasons. Woods suffered his torn ACL later in the schedule than someone like Chris Godwin, who also finishes 50-70 picks ahead of Woods. Godwin is, of course, a better player than Woods, but Woods is pretty impressive in his own right, ranking 19th in points per game last season in PPR with at least 15.0 points per game in each of his last four seasons. I don’t expect him to go back to that level again, necessarily, but Woods still has the upper hand at WR2 at a price of WR4/5. He has been close to being in the top 30 WR for me throughout the entire draft process.
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Tee Higgins — Times chosen: 5
Higgins had shoulder surgery in the offseason and has been pretty quiet in training camp, so I wonder if that played a role in lowering his price. He’s a borderline WR1, and I’m pretty interested in the Bengals’ passing game right now, having drafted both Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Burrow in three leagues. Higgins isn’t as good as Chase, in all likelihood, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he had more targets than his teammate, or at least came very close to matching him. Higgins is a great player in his own right, after a season in which he averaged 14.7 yards per catch and 9.9 yards per target with a 67.3% sack rate. Carrying him to the end of the third round is a steal I’m happy to pull off every time.
Jameson Williams — Times chosen: 5
I’ve added another Williams pick to the draft I’m making as I write this, and my decision-making process in round 12 and later basically looks like this in our draft chat:
- Chris T (3:07:28 PM): We have IR points, right?
- Jamey E. (15:07:38): yes
- Pick: 148 – Team Chris Towers selects Williams, Jameson
Williams is on the NFI roster to open the season and will have to miss the first four games, but by all accounts, her recovery from a torn ACL in January has gone as smoothly as expected. I don’t expect him to have much of an impact in the first half of the season, but Williams is arguably the most talented wide receiver in his draft class, and he could emerge as a fantasy difference-maker down the stretch. And picking him basically gives me a free player to add waivers at the start of the season where I have an IR spot.
Albert Okwuegbunam — Times elected: 4
Okwuegbunam became my default tight end in the last couple of weeks during the last few weeks of draft season, so if I didn’t take one of the guys from the early rounds, there was a good chance I’d finish him off. I expect him to be the third option in a great passing game, and I think there’s a chance he’ll even start lining up in the slot fairly regularly with Tim Patrick out for the season. Having Greg Dulcich start the season should also help him play big plays early on. He is lining up nicely for a break from one of the best size/speed combos at the position.
Alvin Kamara — Times elected: 4
I pushed Kamara into the top six of my overall rankings late in the draft process, and he’s my No. 3 RB for Week 1, so it’s no surprise I ended up getting him into a lot of leagues. But the thing is he, for the most part, I ended up drafting him in the second round, because the price of him was never really adjusted to the likelihood that he’ll play most of the season, which is what I expect. Even through last week’s NFC drafts, Kamara’s ADP sits at 19.49, making him one of the most obvious values in the drafts if he doesn’t get suspended. I expect the Saints’ offense to be much more functional this year than it was last with an improved receiving corps, which should allow Kamara to be much more efficient than he was a year ago. He’s been an elite fantasy option basically every season of his career, I don’t see a good reason why Kamara won’t be again in 2022.
Christian McCaffrey — Times elected: 4
McCaffrey has been my No. 1 player since the first round of qualifying at the start of preseason and I never quit, so if he was still available when I drafted him, he’d be on my team. That happened four times, sometimes as low as No. 1 overall, once as low as fourth. I was excited every time it happened.
Colts DST — Picks: 4
They open against the Texans and the Jaguars, so the Colts are my DST of choice this season. I’m going to put them down without a moment’s hesitation before the Week 3 matchup against the Chiefs and try to get them back when they get the Jaguars in Week 6.
Curtis Samuel — Times chosen: 4
Samuel was also on this list last season, which obviously didn’t work out, but hopefully the fact that he made it through training camp healthy gives him a better chance to make an impact. It’s always one of my last two or three picks, in case he can rediscover some of the unique abilities that made him such a useful Fantasy pick in 2020. I’d love to see Samuel featured in the Commanders backfield division – remember , had 31 carries for 200 yards and a couple of touchdowns in 2020. If he’s in a similar role and gets, say, 100 goals (he had 105 in 2019 and 97 in 2020), there’s a pretty decent chance Samuel will be one of the top. He’s -30 WR, and he’s been free in drafts.
Jake Elliott — Times chosen: 4
In all honesty, writing the two sentences here represents the most thought I’ve put into any kicker pick this season. I can’t say he has a special affinity for Elliott, but he is a solid kicker in a good offense that doesn’t have any obvious tough defenses on the schedule to open the season.
Raheem Mostert — Times elected: 4
Given his inability to stay healthy, Mostert’s low draft price makes sense. He will split the fieldwork with Chase Edmonds, and will likely be on the smaller side of the pack since Edmonds believes he’ll see more passing work. But Mostert has experience running Mike McDaniels’ offense from San Francisco, averaging 5.7 yards per carry on 284 carries in that offense. Mostert doesn’t have a huge upside, but he could be in line for 15 carries when he’s healthy, and that’s enough when I’m building a roster of lightweight RBs who need help early in the season.
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