With an almost unmatched range of results, Lions running back D’Andre Swift will win or lose many fantasy football leagues this year.
Until week 11 of last year, D’Andre Swift was RB5 in full PPR fantasy scoring and a top 10 running back across the board.
He then suffered a shoulder injury early in week 12 and missed the next four games. He had a reduced role in the last two games of the season when he returned and finished as RB15 in full PPR for the season (RB19 in 0.5-point PPR, RB23 in standard).
There’s no need to repeat what Swift’s fantasy upside is for this year, or totally re-address the downside based on the fact that she’s missed three and four games in her first two seasons, respectively.
Depending on the fantasy analyst, sentiment on Swift has been focused on one or the other, up or down. The negative nellies seem to really lean into that, not to mention much of the other side.
D’Andre Swift will win or lose many fantasy football leagues in 2022
Pro Football Focus (subscription required) has unveiled a list of overpriced fantasy picks by draft round. For the second round, Swift was the one. (h/ta Lions Wire for passages cited).
Volume is still king in fantasy football, and it wouldn’t matter too much if Swift is a below-average running back if he sees a lot of volume. But she may not see enough volume to make him a top 10 fantasy racer. He had 33 carries in an overtime game against the Eagles last season while Jamaal Williams was injured, but that was his only game with 15 or more carries. The two seem willing to split carries again this season.
Not to argue the facts, but Swift’s 33-carry game came against the Steelers.
The problem is that Swift hasn’t played well as a running back so far in his career and may not see the volume most expect. His PFF career rating was the lowest among players with at least 150 carries last season. He doesn’t gain a lot of yards after contact, and there’s no guarantee that any of the other players in the bottom five in that category will be on an NFL roster a month from now.
Seemingly in an effort to be more durable and be a stronger running back, Swift added notable muscle during the offseason. Time will tell if that makes him better between tackles, not that he could have been any worse in that area than he was last season.
Full Disclosure: I took Swift in the second round of the draft in the league I focus on the most, at the 2.08 pick (20th overall) to be precise. For fear of setting up an automatic selection, I made the selection manually as fast as I could. Going RB-RB to start, with Najee Harris as my first-round pick, made it a little easier to embrace Swift’s advantage and minimize risk.
Swift could be a top 5 or top 10 fantasy running back this year, with a possible path to it the RB1 in PPR leagues. Or, he could get hit again, miss games, split time with Jamaal Williams … and be an incredible disappointment.
Fantasy leagues are not won without taking some risks that pay off. As a second-round pick, or possibly a late first choice for some, Swift will make or break a lot of potential runs for fantasy league titles this year. There aren’t many players, at every position, with such a wide range of outcomes easily possible.