Earlier this week, Tom Brady was asked about NFL parity and the fact that nearly half of the league’s teams were 2-2 entering Week 5 action.
The response from the star quarterback of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was somewhat unexpected but accurate: “I think there is a lot of bad football from what I see. I watch a lot of bad football. Poor quality of football. That’s what I see.
The next day, fans were treated to an instant classic from Thursday. A hilarious dumpster fire that ended with the Colts limping past the Broncos 12-9. Seven field goals, 12 punts, four interceptions, zero touchdowns.
Yet another game in which the underdogs not only covered but won outright and with no players crossing the goal line, the under was predictably the right play.
The underdogs are now 37-25-3 ATS on the season and the underdogs are 39-25.
Brady and the Bucs have lost two in a row. Brady hasn’t lost three straight regular-season games in 20 years. Really. Not since a four-game stretch in 2002.
Despite being tied for the standings, the Bucs are two-point favorites over the Falcons, the only team 4-0 against the spread (ATS) this season. That’s one of many intriguing gambling-related stories this week. Atlanta is on a winning streak that has helped our Weekly Ridley Parlay reach in consecutive weeks.
Let’s take a look at the Week 4 board with betting lines, totals and details for each game, plus weekly picks and combinations.
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SPREADS AND TOTALS
New York Giants (+8.0) vs. Green Bay Packers (-8.0) | Over/Under: 41.5
Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) vs. Cleveland Browns (+2.5) | Over/Under: 47.5
Houston Texans (+7.0) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.0) | Over/Under: 43.5
Chicago Bears (+7.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings (-7.5) | Over/Under: 43.5
Detroit Lions (+3.5) vs. New England Patriots (-3.5) | Over/Under: 45.5
Seattle Seahawks (+5.5) vs. New Orleans Saints (-5.5) | Over/Under: 46.5
Miami Dolphins (-3.0) vs. New York Jets (+3.0) | Over/Under: 45.5
Atlanta Falcons (+10.0) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10.0) | Over/Under: 46.5
Tennessee Titans (-2.5) vs. Washington Commanders (+2.5) | Over/Under: 42.5
Pittsburgh Steelers (+14.0) vs. Buffalo Bills (-14.0) | Over/Under: 46.5
San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) vs Carolina Panthers (+6.5) | Over/Under: 38.5
Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals (+5.5) | Over/Under: 48.5
Dallas Cowboys (+5.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams (-5.5) | Over/Under: 43.5
Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) | Over/Under: 47.5
Las Vegas Raiders (+7.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) | Over/Under: 51.5
The bass has hit in six of the last seven games between Buffalo and Pittsburgh.
The Giants and Packers play Sunday morning in London. It will be the first time Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have played in the NFL International Series. New York is the best rushing offense in the NFL, averaging 192.5 rushing yards per game, while Green Bay’s defense ranks 22nd in rushing allowed per game and per attempt.
The underdog has covered seven of the last eight meetings between the Chargers and the Browns.
Houston hasn’t lost to Jacksonville since 2017. Eight straight wins on the money line.
The Bears have struggled mightily against division rivals ATS; 3-13 in last 16 against NFC North opponents.
Bailey Zappe gets the nod for New England after pushing the Packers into overtime. He plays against a beaten Lions team that allows and scores the most points per game in the NFL.
New Orleans is getting Alvin Kamara back and Andy Dalton is expected to start against the Seahawks following a 48-45 win over Detroit. Kamara had 179 yards and a touchdown on 30 total touches against Seattle last year.
Teddy Bridgewater is starting in place of Tua Tagovailoa for the Dolphins. Bridgewater has been a coverage machine during his NFL career: 43-21 ATS all-time and 24-6 ATS on the road.
Tom Brady has never lost to Atlanta in his career. He is 10-0 against the Falcons: 5-0 with New England, including the infamous 28-3 Super Bowl comeback win, and 5-0 since joining the NFC South with Tampa. He is also 9-1 ATS playing against the Falcons.
Tennessee is the most popular public play of the week with more than 75 percent of bets on the Titans and points.
Dallas ranked second in sacks entering Week 4 and visited a Rams away line that allowed four sacks per game.
49ers-Panthers is the only total under 40 points this week. Carolina is 3-1 in unders and San Francisco is a 4-0 unders team.
The Eagles are the best first-half team in the NFL (averaging 23.0 points through the first two quarters) and have the 28th-ranked second-half scoring offense. The Cardinals are the first-half team with the lowest scoring with an average of just 4.0 points, but they rank second in second half points with an average of 16.5.
Baltimore has trailed opponents for 14 seconds overall this season, but is 2-2 after blowing leads of 17 and 21 points in two of the past three weeks.
Monday’s Raiders-Chiefs close out the week with the highest total of the week. The last four games between these AFC West teams have all finished with a combined average score of 62.5 points in those four contests.
MIKEY J’S CARD…
(Each week during the regular season I’ll share a few of my picks for the Sunday/Monday board and keep track of my record, so you can go on or fade away responsibly throughout the season. Overall record from 2022 to date: 26-30)
ATS Favorites (7-9): Ravens -3.5, Saints -5.5, Eagles -5.5
Underdog ATS (6-4): Cowboys +5.5, Giants +8.0, Falcons +10.0, Steelers +14.0
Overs (3-7): BUF/PIT 46.5, HOU/JAX 43.5
Subs (4-6): DAL/LAR 43.5, MIA/NYJ 45.5
Moneyline Dogs (6-4): brown, commanders
I took my chances with the three biggest dogs of the week to keep those games competitive and I’m swooning the crowd with the two money line dogs. Those 2.5 point lines look suspicious to me.
THE WEEKLY RIDLEY
(Falcons star WR Calvin Ridley was suspended for the entire 2022 campaign for gambling on games. The NFL concluded that he placed three multi-stage accumulator bets (three-, five-, and eight-game parlays) that included the victory of the Falcons. Every week throughout the regular season we’ll try to collect three tiers of Ridley-inspired combo combinations. 2022 record: 2-2)
Ridley Parlay Level 1 (+582): Falcons (+375), Beerus (-850), Vikings (-350)
Ridley Parlay Level 2 (+1220): Falcons (+375), Bills (-850), Vikings (-350), 49ers (-280), Saints (-235)
Ridley Parlay Level 3 (+2750): Falcons (+375), Bills (-850), Vikings (-350), 49ers (-280), Saints (-235), Chiefs (-340), Jaguars (-320), Packers (-370)
It’s two weeks in a row that Tier 1 has come after the Falcons beat the Browns last week. Atlanta will need to beat Tom Brady for the first time for our streak to extend.
Ridley’s Weekly Confidence Level: Despite being double-digit dogs and Brady having more success against Atlanta than any other team, the Falcons have proven far more competent than offseason expectations suggested. The odds are against them, but the Bucs haven’t looked like a complete team this season.
(2022 odds and trends via Covers, moneyline odds via Bet365 as of Friday and subject to change)