Sadio Mane the Finisher vs. Ball Winner Nico Schlotterbeck and old friends turned rivals in Jude Bellingham and Jamal Musiala: it’s the 107th Bundesliga edition of Der Klassiker. But what are the strengths of Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich in this crucial game? Bundesliga Match Facts from AWS has a look…
Matchday 9 brings one of the biggest matches in world football as the two dominant Bundesliga teams of the last decade, Dortmund and Bayern, meet once again. The Munich champions have apparently put a slump in their form behind them, going nine unanswered past Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga and Viktoria Plzen in the UEFA Champions League. The first saw them slide back ahead of BVB in the table.
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That was the result of Borussia falling to their third defeat of the league campaign against Cologne, the most after eight games over eight years, as they once again let a lead slip away. Their probability of victory, the most recent fact of the Bundesliga match, in the 53rd minute was 64 per cent, when they were 1-0 up. Two minutes and two goals later, their odds had plummeted to just 10 per cent.
It means Bayern enter Der Klassiker above Dortmund in the table for the sixth game in a row, but this time only on goal difference.
The form continues on the side of the champions in this meeting. They have won 10 of the last 11 Klassikers in the league, including each of the last seven, the longest winning streak by any team in this matchup. The most recent meeting on Matchday 31 last season was a 3-1 home win in Munich, which saw Bayern crowned champions for the tenth consecutive year, the first time the title had been decided in Der Klassiker.
many expected goals
Looking only at the attacking stats, Bayern comes out ahead in several areas. They are top scorers in the division with 23 goals, while Dortmund are, in fact, one short of the league average of 12. According to xGoals, BVB should be better off in the scoring charts, with their accumulated chances producing an xG of 16.1.
– DFL Deutsche Fußball Liga
That value is second in the division only to Bayern, who have actually exceeded their expectation of 19.9. That too despite a four game winless streak and where the team’s ability to create and convert chances was questioned.
One of the standout players in terms of opportunities is Mane, who comes into Der Klassiker with a personal xG of 3.7 but four goals under his belt. Marco Reus tops the Borussia table with an xG of 2.5 and two goals scored. If he is fit enough in time for Saturday, it will be a huge boost to the hosts’ chances. Especially because of the league record 60 goals he has scored to put his team 1-0 up in games, and the eight he has beaten Manuel Neuer, the most a player has ever scored against the number 1 in Germany in the Bundesliga.
However, the statistics show that Borussia need to be more clinical in front of goal. They have produced the second most shots in the division (118), but have the worst shooting efficiency of the 18 clubs, coming in 5.1 goals below expectation.
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Those numbers are better for players in the red, despite the problem mentioned above. They have had by far the most attempts on goal in the Bundesliga (184), but are still 3.1 goals above their xG, putting them third in the division in that category. Musiala is the standout player from both teams in this regard, being the only Bayern or Dortmund player in the top 10 for shooting efficiency (+2.2, ranked fourth).
Will speed make a difference in 90 minutes out of breath?
It was Jürgen Klopp who really introduced the concept of Gegenpressing – counter-pressing – world football during his time at BVB, and helped make this matchup the headline-grabber it is. His principle has remained at both clubs, after Bayern realized that he had to change things to keep up. You can see it in the number of opportunities they’ve had from fast breaks or turnovers, with Borussia leading the division with 14 shots and FCB just behind with 12. Interestingly though, neither team have managed to score as a result. yet.
– DFL Deutsche Fußball Liga
Bayern seem to have the upper hand when it comes to leading – and stifling – potential breakouts thanks to their numerous players at breakneck pace. Alphonso Davies is currently tied with Union Berlin’s Sheraldo Becker as the fastest man in the Bundesliga this season (22.4 mph / 36.0 km/h). There are two more Bayern players in the top 10 in Leroy Sane (21.1 mph / 35.6 km/h) and Dayot Upamecano (21.9 mph / 35.3 km/h). Donyell Malen is the fastest player in black and yellow this term, ranking 11th in the league at 21.8 mph (35.1 km/h).
Borussia may not be winning individual sprints, but there is no doubting their work-rate as a team. They lead the division with the most sprints per game (256 on average), while only two teams can beat them in intensive running (BVB average 707 per 90 minutes). However, one of them is Bayern (720); the other is Wolfsburg.
Clock: Davies points to Klassiker’s next hit
Eyes on teenage sensations
With the game being broadcast live in over 200 countries and territories, viewers around the world will have their eyes set on different players. But everyone will want to see how Bellingham and Musiala fare. The 19-year-olds are friends, former England youth internationals but now on opposite sides of major club (and international) rivalries.
They are also already world class and pillars of their respective teams. Their desire to get involved and dictate the game means they are the two most pressured players in the Bundesliga. Bellingham, who has captained Borussia’s last two games, has been pressured more than anyone else in the division (168 times), closely followed by the mercurial Musiala (166). There are two more Bayern players in the top 10: Sane and Mane.
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Bellingham and Musiala are used in different positions, but they still have a huge influence on the game. The former has won the most challenges in the league (137) and is among the top players in the “Ball Winner” category of Skills Match Fact.
On the other hand, Musiala does most of his work in the attacking third, running into defenders and creating chances for himself and others. He is Bayern’s top scorer with five (already as many as in 2021/22) and has three other assists. Only the Union’s Becker has been directly involved in more Bundesliga goals (nine). The young Germany international has contested the most challenges in the Munich red, winning 51 per cent of them. It all means that he appears in the ‘Finisher’ and ‘Initiator’ Skill categories.
Clock: Bellingham and Musiala: friends turned rivals
Solid defense and controlled passes
Both teams have done well so far defensively. Bayern have conceded six times, Borussia 10. That is also reflected in their xG against. The teams facing the champions are only expected to score 7.8 goals; only Union has a lower xGA (7.5). BVB’s value is 9.6, placing it fourth behind Cologne (8.5).
Both teams also have standout players in the new Performance Under Pressure data. Niklas Süle, who this summer swapped Munich for Dortmund, has been able to find a way out of 79 per cent of his pressing situations, the best rate in the division. His nominal replacement, Matthijs de Ligt, is Bayern’s best man under pressure and sixth in the league with a 75 per cent escape rate. Midfielder Marcel Sabitzer is one place below him at 74 per cent.
It’s no surprise to see that record champions like to dominate the game. They lead the Bundesliga in average possession (62.8%) and completion rate (88.4%), while they are also the most efficient distributors with +109.9 passing performance. Die Schwarzgelben in fact, they’re in the red here, completing 6.6 fewer passes than expected, but it still ranks fifth in the league.
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In terms of players, Joshua Kimmich (+24.1) and Thomas Müller (+18.2) lead the division in passing performance, meaning their possible inclusion on Saturday is even more vital for Bayern. Upamecano and Benjamin Pavard are four FCB men in the top 10. BVB’s leading passer is Julian Brandt (+7.4), ranked 19th in the entire division.
There are areas where Bayern come out on top, areas where it is Dortmund who have the statistical advantage. It could all come down to those fine margins when the pair meet at Signal Iduna Park for another massive Klassiker encounter.