• Bet Packers RB AJ Dillon u55.5 rushing yards (-115; playable up to 54.5): Dillon has the lowest explosive run rate in the NFL since he entered the league.
• Dillon’s counterpart, Aaron Jones is averaging +1.18 RYOE/rush this season (compared to -0.87 for Dillon) and should start getting more carries.
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Last updated: Fri. October 7, 10:50 a.m.
Estimated reading time: 3 min.
Over the past two weeks, using Rushing Yards Over Expected (RYOE) to identify rushing prop bets, we’ve gone 4-2 and won 1.6 units. This is because 4 out of 6 recommended bets were low. As PFF’s Ben Brown shows, land bets raise the money more often than land bets. In this article, 2 lows and 1 high will be awarded to maximize profits, but the high must be placed with more caution than the lows.
NFL player apparel categories broken down by units earned through the first four weeks of the season. pic.twitter.com/LMu024LIXE
— Benjamin Brown (@PFF_BenBrown) October 6, 2022
Bet: Green Bay Packers RB AJ Dillon Under 55.5 rushing yards (-115 DraftKings, playable up to 54.5) vs. New York Giants
• Dillon is not explosive: The quickest way for an under in rushing support not to hit is for the running back to break up an explosive run. AJ Dilon has been the least explosive running back in the NFL since 2021, so he shouldn’t be much of an issue on Sunday.
• Dillon has struggled this season: After averaging +0.29 rushing yards above expectations per carry last year, Dillon has dropped to -0.87 RYOE/run, well below the NFL average. His counterpart, Aaron Jones, has had a +1.18 RYOE/rush and should start getting most of the carries.
• PFF Player Accessory Tool see this bet as a +2.6% edge.
Bet: Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson Over 56.5 rushing yards (-115 BetMGM; playable up to 58.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
• Lamar Jackson is the best running back in the NFL: In his 17 engineered runs this year, Lamar Jackson has totaled +115 rushing yards above expectations, the most in the entire league. This doesn’t even include his coding ability, which is also very effective.
• Often happens: This season, Lamar Jackson rushed for 17 yards in Week 1, but since then he has rushed for 119, 107 and 73 yards, respectively, topping his yardage total each week. In his career, Jackson has an average rushing yardage of 66 and a median rushing yardage of 65.
Bet: Philadelphia Eagles RB Miles Sanders Under 64.5 rushing yards (-115 DraftKings, playable up to 66.5) at Arizona Cardinals
• Sanders’ stats are an outlier: For most of the season, Miles Sanders was a below-average running back, but getting a 35-yard rush last week (+28.1 RYOE) made his overall stats and advanced stats look better than they really are. The percentage of his runs that generate positive RYOE is still 45.9%, which is below average.
• PFF Player Accessory Tool has this bet as +5.3% to bet.
Tej’s rushing prop betting went 2-1 in Week 4, raising his season high in this space to 5-4 (.4 units).
The higher than expected rushing yards were created using an extreme gradient boost (XGBoost) model. The most important factor in determining expected rushing yards is the number of rated and negatively rated blocks on a play. This is followed by the importance of yards from the end zone, number of box defenders, defensive strength, seconds remaining in the half, and scoring differential.
This model can predict 22% of the variance in actual rushing yards and has an annual correlation of 0.21. You can find a brilliant app to explore RYOE for every gamer here.